Search results for "Trading rules"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Calendar Anomalies in Stock Index Futures
2011
There exist a large and increasing number of papers that describe different calendar anomalies in stock markets. Although empirical evidence suggests that seasonal effects disappeared after the early 1990s, new studies and approaches assert the continuation of some anomalies in stock indexes. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of 188 possible cyclical anomalies in S&P 500, DAX and Nikkei stock index futures contracts from 1991 to 2008. Frictions in futures markets, unlike spot markets frictions, make it feasible to produce economically significant profits from trading rules based on calendar effects. By applying a percentile-t-bootstrap and Monte Carlo methods, our analysis rev…
A Study of Seasonality on the SAFEX Wheat Market
2015
This paper examines seasonality in returns and volatilities in the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) wheat futures contract in order to seek market inefficiencies that can be exploited for financial gain. Non-parametric and parametric-based techniques are used to study sample regimes before and after the peak in wheat prices that occurred during the global economic crisis in 2008. Findings of the study indicate that wheat returns on Mondays and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) holidays are significant and positive while Tuesday returns are negative and significant. These seasonal patterns occur largely in the second sample of the wheat dataset. Furthermore, it is observed that volatil…
Trading with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers
2007
: We study the profitability of trading strategies based on volatility spillovers between large and small firms. By using the Volatility Impulse-Response Function of Lin (1997) and its extensions, we detect that any volatility shock coming from small companies is important to large companies, but the reverse is only true for negative shocks coming from large firms. To exploit these asymmetric patterns in volatility, different trading rules are designed based on the inverse relationship existing between expected return and volatility. We find that most strategies generate excess after-transaction cost profits, especially after very bad news and very good news coming from large or small firm…
Anatomy of Trading Rules
2017
This key chapter presents a methodology for examining how the trading signal in a moving average rule is computed. Then using this methodology the chapter examines the computation of trading signals in all moving average rules and investigates the commonalities and differences between the rules. The main conclusion that can be drawn from this study is that the computation of the trading indicator in every rule, based on either one or multiple moving averages, can equivalently be interpreted as the computation of a single weighted moving average of price changes. The analysis presented in this chapter uncovers the anatomy of moving average trading rules, provides very useful insights about p…
Trading in Other Financial Markets
2017
This chapter tests the profitability of various moving average trading rules in different financial markets: stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. The results of these tests allow us to better understand the properties of the moving average trading strategies and find out which trading rules are profitable in which markets. The chapter concludes with a few practical recommendations for traders testing the profitability of moving average trading rules. The analysis presented in this chapter also suggests a hypothesis about simultaneous existence, in the same financial market, of several trends with different durations.
Technical Trading Rules
2017
This chapter reviews the most common trend-following rules that are based on moving averages of prices. It also discusses the principles behind the generation of trading signals in these rules. This chapter also illustrates the limitations of these rules and argues that the moving average trading rules are advantageous only when the trend is strong and long-lasting.
Trading the Standard and Poor’s Composite Index
2017
This chapter utilizes the longest historical sample of data on the SP whether the choice of moving average influences the performance of trading rules; how accurately the trading rules identify the bullish and bearish stock market trends; whether there is any advantage in trading daily rather than monthly; and how persistent is the outperformance delivered by the moving average trading rules. The results of this study allow us to revisit the myths regarding the superior performance of the moving average trading rules in this well-known stock market and fully understand their advantages and disadvantages.
Trend Following with Momentum Versus Moving Average: A Tale of Differences
2018
Despite the ever-growing interest in trend following and a series of publications in academic journals, there is still a great shortage of theoretical results on the properties of trend following rules. Our paper fills this gap by comparing and contrasting the two most popular trend following rules, the Momentum (MOM) and Moving Average (MA) rules, from a theoretical perspective. Our approach is based on the return-based formulation of trading rules and modelling the price trends by an autoregressive return process. We provide theoretical results on the similarity between various trend following rules and the forecast accuracy of trading rules. Our results show that the similarity between t…